Probability theory is a branch of mathematics that attempts to understand random events and predicts them so they aren’t that random anymore. For example, some will use probability theory to guess lottery numbers, others will use it to guess flu outbreaks. Some will use it to increase their chances at a desired outcome.

They do this by identifying all of the random variables in a given environment and predicting the outcome based on their relationship to other variables such as size of the environment.

I think a lot about probability theory. In fact I use it to make most of my decisions. Yes, I am crazy like that. Sure, I often am able to throw caution at the wind and take risk. But, isn’t it better if those risk are calculated, first?

Being a good entrepreneur many times means just taking calculated risk. And, probability theory tells us, that the more risks you take the higher probability for success. Which is why there are so many “serial entrepreneurs” out there. They understand that the more risk they take, the more likely they will succeed.

The same goes for blogging. Here is a list of some of the desired outcome that I want from this blog.

• More direct backlinks.
• More Page Views.
• Larger personal brand awareness.
• More engagement.
• More opportunities.

So how do I get all of those things? I take more risk. Or in other words, I blog more often. I used to believe that it was smarter to only blog when you have something really valuable to say. That way your best work stands out the most. But then I looked at some of my favorite bloggers and realized that they have everything that’s listed above because they take more risk.

Sure some of their post aren’t the best out there, but because they took the risk they are closer to being outstanding.

So, because of that, I have decided that I am going to start and take more risk with my blogging. For starters, I am going to try and blog here more often. In a perfect world I would blog everyday, but I don’t think my duties with the company I run will allow for that. But, I do have a few tricks up my sleeve.

Remember a few days ago I mentioned that to be productive you need to work your “get things done” items into your “work flow”. Well blogging is no exception. To help me blog more I am now using BlogDesk. BlogDesk is a desktop application for Windows users that allows you to tie in all your blogs and write and post all from one application. Its great because I don’t have to login to my blog to write, I just click the icon in my task menu and start writing and it automatically publishes when I am ready. I have tied all my blogs into it and its been working great. Oh and its free, so that’s cool too!

Next time you are faced with taking a risk, don’t shy away from it. Instead use probability theory to calculate the risk, and go for it. Because risk taking is the path to success.

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Seeing this need to work my task into my work flow, I have decided to not do yearly resolutions and instead focus on quartly plans. This way I can plan out the quarter I am in, and that only. My goals are more short term and as a result less likely to loose touch with them. Also, I can actually schedule most of them because at the most they are only a few months away. Then when the next quarter rolls around I will set a whole new list.

How are you takling your goals this year?

One of the biggest advantages of utilizing the cloud is the ability to pretty much outsource the tech and management issues related with self hosting. But at the same time using the cloud leaves you vulnerable to companies that can and do experience massive outages. There has to be a middle ground.

There is! Using shared or grid based hosting services in conjunction with software like WordPress is the ideal solution. These “micro-clouds” allow for regular backups and complete control over your hosting environment. Which means that when you are hit with a outage or downtime, you can rebound much faster because you have direct access to the data you created and own.

If your company is using tumblr or a similar service, and you want to move to WordPress with a micro-cloud solution. Let us help you with that transition!

The image above is a screen shot of my Twitter. Yep, that’s right, I said “my” Twitter. You see no one else looks at Twitter the same way I do. No one else has the same follower/following formula. Sure many may have the same number of followers, but no one has the same followers and following. This is because no one else is @JoeHall. Social media is full of different humans (and robots) and each one of us experience it in a different way. Each one of us has a different social media reality. So, you have your own Twitter as well.

Long before social media, philosophers have theorized subjective realities as being the basis for conscious behavior. In 1974, Thomas Nagel asked, “What is It Like to Be a Bat?“. Here, Nagel, tells us that because bats are conscious and interact with the world in a completely different way than any other mammal, their reality is unique. However, you don’t need to be a bat to have a subjective reality, each one of us sees the world differently and thus has a different experience.

The study of subjective reality has been nearly impossible given that no one can truly get inside the mind of someone else. Even the movie Being John Malkovich showed us that having access to another person’s reality isn’t enough if you can’t shed your own on the way in.

However, with social media things are a bit different. Now the saying “walk a mile in someone’s shoes” isn’t just a figure of speech. For example, if I wanted to, I could let anyone reading this, log into my Twitter account. While logged in, they could experience what its like to be @JoeHall. Or better yet, one could log into a spam bot’s acct and see what it’s like to be a spam bot. Or you could log into my mom’s email and get a tiny glimpse into her digital reality. By doing so you would have expanded your own reality and would have a much more rounded perception of the digital landscape.

As we work to build digital realities we are also expanding the potential for new experiences and new avenues for exploring those same realities.

A big thanks is in order for the WordPress core developers for including this fun little surprise. Apparently this Easter egg has appeared in WordPress since version 2.6.

At first I was really worried about my clients and how they were going to take the news. But I knew I had to tell them soon. So, I grabbed my netbook and hit up a wireless cafe. Their response was awesome. A few were rightfully upset that their projects were going to be delayed 2 weeks, but they were all understanding and I didn’t lose a single client! Sometimes polite brutal honesty really works well.

So now that I had contacted my clients I had to face the ugly reality that for the first time in close to 5 years I would be with out Internet access for longer than a week! What the hell was I going to do?? I ended up reading a few books and writing a bit. But, for the most part I did a lot of thinking.

Over the last three years I have been busy building a business on the Internet It has been an amazing journey that has taught me so much about myself and other people. And now I had two weeks away from it all, to reflect. When I started out 3 years ago I could write code that could make your head spin (still can). But, I had absolutely no idea how to build a business and a brand. I will admit that in large part I am still learning, like everyone. But, I have realized a few things along the way…

For me 86% of building a business is all social. You can’t build a business and a brand on an island. You have to engage. Engage who? Everyone! Successful entrepreneurs wear their brand on their sleeve, they are their company and their company is them. Every interaction that I have is an extension of my brand. When I am at a conference meeting new people I am building my brand. When I am on twitter or facebook I am building my brand. When I am spending time with my family and “recharging my spirit” I am building my brand. When I am being an active participate of social spaces I am building my brand.

Being social can be scary. Theres a lot of people out there and a lot of times it can be overwhelming I would say about 80% of the folks I meet I want to build my brand with. Others are very interesting, but might not be the best for brand building, and a few are just assholes. Wearing your brand on your sleeve also means that you are always “on”. Which means that you always have to be smart about the ways you engage. This is sometimes a lesson that can only be learned the hard way. I will be the first to admit that I have engaged the “wrong way” in the past.

Which brings me to the beginning of something new. This new blog is fundamentally about engagement and how we can do that effectively the “right way”. We will talk about lots of different topics here, but in the end of the day its the dialogue that will push us forward. So please subscribe to the feed and join me in a new dialog!

WhosTalkin.com is a social media search tool that allows users to search for conversations surrounding the topics that they care about most. Whether it be your favorite sport, favorite food, celebrity, or your company’s brand name; Whostalkin.com can help you join in on the conversations that you care about most.